Some charting exercises for practice and for analysis of previous trades. But before that, caveat emptor. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell. Your thoughts are more than welcome though. As follows are Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts of PSEi, NOW Corp, Wilcon and MPI.
- 4 straight months of red candles, market remains very weak, this month is not yet over but we need to close above 7791 to be green. Tough task? We’ll see.
- 50MA just around the corner at 7488. Hopefully it acts as support.
- Conversion line (blue) remains above the base line (red), price remains above the cloud which is still green, so in that sense that’s a bullish bias, at least on the monthly
- This week we’re still in a red candle though this week is not yet over but we need to close above 7693 to be green
- Base building above 7506 the past 6 weeks, which is the 0.618 fibonacci line as well as the border of the ichimoku cloud
- Conversion line (blue) is below the base line (red), price remains below the 50MA and 100MA while prices are within cloud, which just turned red. These are all sideways to bearish bias.
- Good bounce today but such bounce was not even enough to offset yesterday’s losses. Candles trying to stay above 7500. Foreign selling still continues.
- Conversion line (blue) is aligned with the base line (red), but prices are below it. Price remains below the 50MA, 100MA and 200MA. Prices are below the cloud, which is red. All bearish biases.
- So for now, the index is weak so expect bearishness for the index as a whole, as well as for index tracking funds. April Tan also mentioned recovery will be ‘L’ shaped, not ‘V’ shaped.
- The month is not yet over but this month’s candle is looking good, after the 2 previous red candles. It will be good omen if it closes in the green this month, so June candle can build on the May green candle to possibly re-attack 20. Give or take 2 months if it continues in the green. But who knows?
- Lower foreign selling this month compared to last 3 months
- Strong bar on the weekly though this week is not yet over.
- Very far from moving averages though for many weeks now. Eventually this catches up but when?
- Good volume for this week
- Ichimoku components not conclusive because of the weekly volatility
- Tried a test buy yesterday when it crossed the 50MA, almost got shaken out after lunch but good thing it closed strong yesterday on good volume. Price has been above 100MA and 200MA for quite some time now.
- Also made a test buy as the price is now above conversion and base lines, where conversion line is also above base line. Test buy only since price remains below the cloud.
- Marked my target price at resistance, which is the border of the cloud at 10 (psychological too), but good thing it did not get untog at 10 today.
- Very strong showing and volume today. But knowing NOW, it has been very volatile Feb and March. It crept up silently the past days until it got strong market following again today. Has volatility returned for this issue?
- Trailing stops.
- Wilcon has been very strong on the monthly, bearish last month but trying to stay strong for this month.
- My only issue with the monthly chart are the long wicks on the upside, as if it’s trying to go up but unable to close firmly on the highs. Good thing though are the shorter wicks on the downside.
- Shorter price ranges as well the past 3 months compared to long candles 5 and 6 months ago. Sign of consolidation and less momentum?
- Bearish weekly (so far) and it might close in the red, after the indecisiveness last week via a doji, which I missed to be honest. Just seeing this in hindsight.
- Conversion line remains above base line but base line is very far below
- Showed some buyers today but cloud has been breached. Nearest fibo ratio is 10.54 (38.2%) which is also the cloud border
- Was able to ride the run up since May 9 but obviously gains were easily wiped out when a long red candle manifested May 18 (I was in meetings boo!). O well. Trail stop got hit so I had to sell.
- Now waiting again. AOTS potential still around the corner. Let’s see. As long as it stays above 10.82, it can keep the monthly candle green. Maybe it can show continued recovery tomorrow?
- Been bearish the past 5 months after being sideways 15 months prior to that. In short, it hasn’t provided good returns for long term investors, but tradeable from time to time
- This month remains red though as it now sits at the border of the cloud, below conversion and base lines, just around the 100MA
- Too many red candles on the weekly but showed some promise 3 to 5 weeks ago, showing 3 green candles, in what could have been interpreted at that time as reversal
- Strong run from 4.50 to 5.50 at that time. Managed to enter 4 weeks ago, as I treated the green candle 5 weeks ago as potential signal bar. Decent gains for 2 weeks worth of work for my money, almost P1 per share.
- Pegged target price at near 5.5 which is the base line.
- Tried bottom fishing near 4.6 when prices crossed the conversion line. Just a test buy though since conversion line is still below base line, prices below MAs, below clouds etc. Just a test buy really.
- Pegged target price at 50MA (5.2), with overshoot at 5.4 which is the cloud’s border
- True enough MPI staged a mini-rally until it hit resistance at the cloud’s border, and has been downtrend (again) ever since.
- Trail stops hit just below the conversion line (blue).
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