Migz, via email.
Caveat emptor. I can sense the hesitation from your email since you have a losing position in FGEN. This is normal. Allow me to confirm that yes, I also received the TRC stock recommendation to sell FGEN and use the proceeds to buy MER. However, if you’re not comfortable to do that, then allow me to give you some more points for consideration.
My initial read on TRC’s reco to sell FGEN and buy MER is that they expect MER to recover much faster than FGEN, to the point that they even recommend selling FGEN at a loss. The reco also mentioned the attractive dividend yields that MER pays out, which is now even more attractive given the much lower prices.
Personally I don’t have holdings in either MER or FGEN, but per my limited observation of the two stocks, MER is usually more active than FGEN, so in case both stocks recover, I would expect MER to move faster (or recover earlier) than FGEN. This is a natural exercise for stocks traders and investors alike, shifting from a slow horse to a faster one, even if they still have losses, even if they are forced to take paper losses into actual losses, because they expect the faster horse to more than cover for the realized losses.
You mentioned you’re down 2.5% on FGEN, not sure how much your exposure is but assuming PHP 100k, then you’re down PHP 2,500 – an amount which you will surely recover when market recovers. It’s really up to you whether you follow the TRC reco or not (sometimes I don’t) since we all have different portfolio situations and investment horizons. You are (or should be) in the best position to decide what will be beneficial to your portfolio.
To guide you further in considering whether to sell, most investors set a cutloss threshold like 7-8% loss wherein when this is hit, they sell the position no questions asked. In this regard, the 2.5% loss is still far from being worrisome, and should be easier to stomach, should you decide to sell.
You can also consider selling half (or a portion) of your FGEN holdings and use the proceeds to buy MER. This way, you still have exposure in FGEN (in case it recovers) while you get to ride MER too.
In our previous post, we also outlined a number of other reasons on when you should sell your position. You might find them helpful. Click here for the article: When to Sell Your Stocks? (Part 3).
Previously mentioned that you are in the best position to manage your holdings, whether to buy or sell. Another key lesson will be portfolio management: our goal should be to grow our portfolio, to grow the money we invested in the stock market regardless of what stock we used to grow it. With that said, we should not fall in love with any stock (I am personally guilty of this), and we should be able to sell the slow ones (with no attachments) as soon as we find better alternatives. On the flip side, if frequent buying and selling is not within your investment OHA, then you may choose to forego selling FGEN since you are very long term and the paper losses are still bearable, then just buy MER or don’t buy any stock at all. Depends on your objectives, horizon and appetite.
Lastly, below are the charts of MER and FGEN as of today, lunch break, plus some simple technical analysis from yours truly.
MER has been down significantly since July but it is up 2.16% as of this morning’s trade. MACD and Stochastics are also both pointing up, where MACD started to look upwards as early as 13Dec2016. RSI is also pointing up, indicative of recent buying activity.
As of today, MER also touched its 20-day moving average (MA) which should be a good sign if it stays above that. There’s also a big volume 7 trading days ago on a red day. Could that volume be the last of the selling / outflows? Could it be the bottom? Are we going to see a slow recovery moving forward? Only time can tell.
One might argue that MER being up today is because TRC released a buy reco, so TRC members are buying but one can also argue that TRC investors are mostly retail and cannot possibly sway the price action that much. Who knows? I’m more for the latter. Most likely, many market followers (including TRC) have spotted this opportunity in MER. But those who did buy may be smiling right now, especially if we look at how FGEN fared especially today.
FGEN is also down significantly but based on its MACD (today) and Stochastics (3 trading days ago), both still point to a downward price trend. There’s good volume today too but as of lunch break, FGEN is down 4.7%. RSI is also looking downward. Overall, technicals-wise, not so good.
Could it be that TRC is also monitoring these technical indicators? Could be since MA, MACD and Stochastics are among the easiest to read indicators.
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