You might have noticed I temporarily stopped posting my analyses in this site. Well, aside from being busy the past few months with the day job, I haven’t really had much luck with my tsupit choices. Some had gains but the ones where I had to cut losses (-8%) erased the little gains I had.
In short, my tsupit fund is net loss at the moment (I don’t have any short term holdings at this point). Good thing, with Duterte’s victory and improved market sentiment, the market rebounded in general which gave me handsome paper gains for the core holdings, more than enough to offset my paper losses.
There comes my dilemma. It’s like I’m having a sort of identity crisis. I feel the struggles of having to wear two different hats, two different styles. It’s not that fundamentals and TA cannot co-exist, they actually can, but for my tsupit fund, I normally gravitate to 3rd liners and speculative stocks, stocks which Juan won’t normally have for his core holdings, stocks which normally will defy rules of fundamental analysis.
So I surround myself with subject matter experts on technical analysis. Joined FB groups and followed blogs of active stock traders. Some key points I’d like to share:
These gurus and experts have actual trading plans, and some even devised their own parameters, ways of computing average volumes, entry and exit prices, risk reward ratios, number of months to rebalance or purge the portfolio etc. I used to have this for fundamental analysis where you plug in figures from the AFS but I don’t have one yet for TA. I’m comfortable looking at candlestick patterns, support, resistance, indicators such as stochastics, MACD and RSI etc. I use these in timing my entries but maybe I need to level up my game by being a bit more sophisticated. As one of the gurus I follow always say, “the math will tell you everything you need to know.” I need to study more. Compute more.
With long-term investing, it’s much easier to veer away from one’s emotions especially if the stock prices go south, precisely because one is long term, not much urge to take profits or cut losses, because deep inside, one knows that good companies will always appreciate in stock value in the long run. That’s not easily the case for shorter-term trading. In fact, that’s why my tsupit fund is at net loss is because I have a hard time taking profits (greed) but I have no problems cutting losses when I hit -8%. Maybe I’m having a hard time taking in profits because of the long-term investor in me.