Manila, Philippines

Juan Liners: The Walking Dead Cat Bounce, Odd Odds and Oil Megasale

Juan Liners: The Walking Dead Cat Bounce, Odd Odds and Oil Megasale
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The PSEi dropped by almost 200 points on Oct 13, 2014, falling to 6,968, the biggest drop since Sept 2013 amid concerns of a global slowdown. What’s with -ber months anyway?Last year’s drop reminded me of the red wedding and bloodbath in Game of Thrones. In an unrelated news, The Walking Dead season 5 also premiered the same day as the October pullback.

It was the most watched episode of TWD to date. What is it with the stock market alluding itself with gory series? Or is it just me? You know nothing, Jon Snow.

Zombie! by danhollisterduck, on Flickr

Other major markets fell too, with US markets and European markets on a downtrend for some time now. Most local traders meanwhile have been expecting a pullback as PSEi remained once of the most expensive stock markets in Asia. So I hope this one is a healthy correction and that the bullish trend remains intact.

Some analysts predict a bounce from oversold levels, then the downtrend or sideways direction might continue for quite some time. Some predict that we are in wave 5 already of Elliot wave, or maybe we have started with corrective the wave A? Who knows, Jon Snow? 

I say we can call it The Walking Dead Cat Bounce. Pun intended.

Time to brush up on Elliot Wave Theory and Fibonacci Retracements.

Odd odds?

Filipinos still prefer betting on lotto even if the odds of winning is very very small. But the odds of winning and burning the ticket is much much way way smaller. This is what happened to a man who claims he won the PHP12M pot but unfortunately, his ticket got burned by a flat iron. Odd odds.

Lucky Lotto Combination.jpg

Pera na naging abo pa. The ticket was badly burned that the numbers are no longer visible. All is not lost though as the outlet where the man purchased the ticket confirmed that the winning combination was indeed purchased from them. Now, PCSO just needs to connect the winning combination to the man who claims he was the one who bet on it. I hope the man can prove his PHP12M claim. Any CCTV’s in the vicinity which could show that the man was indeed buying a ticket around the time that the winning combination was bet on? Maybe PCSO should require CCTV in all their outlets for security and claiming purposes.

PCSO says the man can claim the winnings after one year assuming no one else claims it. Can’t imagine how the man must feel. Is it tormenting to wait for 1 year to get PHP12M? Or better than nothing, right?

Maybe he can ask PCSO to factor in time value of money since the PHP12M right now is more valuable than PHP12M 12 months from now. That is if he knows how to grow it. But for most Lotto winners, it might be that the PHP12M now is close to zero 12 months after. Or maybe it’s asking too much for a burned ticket.

Oil Megasale

For the second consecutive week, oil firms rolled back their prices by more than PHP1. Global oil prices are on a downtrend as well. Many factors are at play here, but among them is the lower US demand for imported oil since they have been increasing their local production of oil. Yes they found oil in the US. As such, when your biggest consumer lessens its offshore demand, there’s more oil for the rest, hence lower prices.

This bodes well for Cebu Pacific (PSE: CEB) and Philippine Airlines (PSE: PAL) as this means cheaper fuel oil for their flights. Delays in NAIA flights while the engine is running, coupled with expensive oil is bad for business. So at least now they can buy cheaper oil.

Good news too for public and private vehicles. We should also ask for fare rollback though.

This seems bad news though for oil companies such as listed Petron (PSE:PCOR) and Phoenix (PSE:PNX) whose month’s worth of inventory may have been purchased during higher oil prices. And with the rollbacks, it means less revenue for every liter sold.

Maybe they can do some cost-averaging with the inventory? Or come up with promos to incentivize higher consumption of oil given the lower prices. Sorry, sounds too capitalist.

Petron’s shares plunged from 11.7 to 11.5 to 11.3 in the past few days, also aggravated by overall bearish sentiment. This is in spite of their press release of the start up of their multi-billion refinery project which enables them to refine oil locally, increase their production and save up on importations costs. Full operations of this new refinery by early 2015.

For the local Juans, with all the road repairs, truck bans, relatively lower gas prices, sudden rains and flooding, top it all with mall sales and Christmas rush, this may mean more horrible traffic jams.

Photo: Zombie by danhollisterduck

Creative Commons Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic License



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