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Quick Stocks AFS (Financials) Analysis From Peter Lynch

Quick Stocks AFS (Financials) Analysis From Peter Lynch
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Peter Lynch taught me a lot on stocks fundamentals, on how I should use what I know to earn money from the stock market. In his One Up on Wall Street, he gives a lot of tips and advice and learning points that transcends the US market, that are very much applicable to our young Philippine Stock Market (Side note: The One Up on Wall Street is one of the 30 free ebooks I’m giving away in the #3M Money Management Modules).
In this post, allow me to share some of the things I learned from him, focusing for now on a quick drill on how to read a company’s financial statements, and find out whether the company is worth investing into or not. What are the numbers that matter (Chapter 13 of his book) and how to read them?
Quick Stocks AFS (Financials) Analysis From Peter Lynch

+1. Market Capitalization

This is not among Lynch’s list but I believe this should be here as well. Market cap is simply share price multiplied by total outstanding shares. TQuick Stocks AFS (Financials) Analysis From Peter Lynchhis is basically the company valuation, how much the company is worth in the eyes of the market. This will not be equal to the total assets  or equity of the company since it already considers all the future growth or events that might happen to the company (forward looking as they say). But if ever they are close, then chances are you found a reasonably priced stock. Another helpful tool is compare market caps of competing companies, see who’s leading in market share and see if the same is true in terms of market caps. Also, for the conglomerates (e.g. AC or AGI or JGS), it will be a good exercise to check the market caps of its subsidiaries (e.g. GLO, ALI, MEG, GERI, McDo, URC, DGTL, CEB) to see whether if conglomerate market caps are still within sane levels when compared to the sum of its parts. 

1. Net Income and Margins

Of course, the bottom line, the profits. With every AFS released, our main concern is whether the company made money, and if it was better than the last statement. We hear it all the time, profit estimates and targets from companies and outsider investors alike. Lynch pointed out that it will be pointless to compare net income across industries, but it will worth doing within the same industry, compare the competing companies. We should not just take the net income figure on a nominal value. Instead, we should look at profit margin, or net income divided by total revenues (or sales). This figure will show you the most efficient company, the company who spends the least to get the greatest revenue. The higher the profit margin, the better.


2. Cash Position

Cash is king, and if there’s a quick basis on how wealthy (and hence valuable) a company is, then the company’s cash is the best place to start. On the AFS, add all ‘cash’ and ‘cash equivalents’ and subtract from this sum the company’s debts. This is the company’s net cash position, and dividing this nest cash by total outstanding shares and you get net cash per share. This is how much the company value is on cash basis alone. So if a share price sells at P10 but a company has cash of P6 per share, then that means 60% of your investment is already covered by cash, and you are just risking P4 per share. Peter Lynch calls this bonus, I call it discount. Having the actual net cash per share beats all speculations on future growth and prospects, etc. A big net cash per share also means you are getting the stock price at a big discount, and now it is up to you to gauge whether the discounted stock price is undervalued or still unreasonably high.

Quick Stocks AFS (Financials) Analysis From Peter Lynch


3. Price / Earnings Ratio

More famously called the P/E ratio. This is computed as the stock price divided by earnings per share. In turn, earnings per share is computed as net income divided by total outstanding shares. In principle, PE ratio is the ratio of how much the stock is valued in the market vis-à-vis how much that stock earns. For Peter Lynch, the PE ratio should be equal to the earnings growth rate of the company. If more, then the stock may be overvalued, if less then you are getting the stock as a discount.  In simpler terms again, the ratio is the number of years it will take for you to recover your investment, assuming earnings growth rate is constant (caution this a big assumption). For example, if a stock is priced at P10, and earnings per share for a year is P2, then PE ratio is 5. If the company gets earnings per share of P2 a year, then it will take 5 years for you to recover your investment of P10. Note the assumption that earnings per share remain constant. Upside on earnings growth, big recoveries, or lower income for the year are some things you need to consider together with PE ratio. Likewise, some analysts also compare PE ratios of the whole market, and the close competitors, to see if a certain PE ratio is within reasonable levels.

4. Debt-to-Equity Ratio

This is simply the sum of short- and long-term debt divided by total shareholders’ equity. This shows you how much the company owes vis-à-vis how much it owns. Very low ratio is perfect while very high ratio is troublesome. Remember that as a shareholder,  you will be the last ones to be paid by the company, and that debtors have a higher priority. As such, if a company is buried in deep debt, then I suggest you be careful and see if the company has rosy chances to pay these off. If very little debt, plus lots of cash (see #1), then you hit a jackpot! How to find a healthy DE ratio? Peter Lynch quotes 25% but it won’t hurt to compare once again with competitors (e.g. DGTL vs GLO vs Smart portion of TEL).

5. Percent of Sales

Or we can also adjust this to percent of subsidiary market cap or income for holding companies. Back to sales. Say you noticed a star product selling like hotcakes, and you wanted to invest in the shares of that company. Then I suggest you look at percent of sales provided by the star product that intrigued you to the whole revenue of the company. To localize an example, let us assume that you noticed that cheeseburgers and Smart Bro and Sun Unlimited Call and Text have become a hit lately. Then the next thing to check is whether cheeseburgers are driving AGI’s sales, or whether Smart Bro is a big chunk of TEL’s business, or how much of DGTL income is from Sun Unli Calls and Texts. Other examples will be how Gold figures in the sales of mining companies such as PX, LC and AT. I’m sure you’ll find varying numbers. This ensures that the star product you have seen, is not just a drop in the bucket in the sales of a company.


6. Dividends

Dividends are steady income streams that you can get from the companies, assuming of course that they pay this out, through the good times and the bad. For me, dividends is how company shares its income with its shareholders and investors, without sacrificing the liquidity needs of the company.  Though one can argue that the company is better off using the money for dividends into more productive use such as expansion. Lynch tells us that if the stock is a slow grower, a company that is already too big, and not much room to expand, then dividends is really a plus. But for a young stalwart company with so much promise and rosy prospects, then a dividend is not really necessary (use it for further expansion) but a welcome add-on nonetheless. One should check though whether the company has always paid-out dividends, whether it pays out increasing, consistent or decreasing dividends. Also, dividends is not just about cash dividends, but also stock dividends, stocks splits etc.  The dates on dividends also come into play with the short term pricing of the stock. See my related post on dividend basics here.

Quick Stocks AFS (Financials) Analysis From Peter Lynch

7. Growth Rate

Very critically tied to #1 and #3 above, growth rate of earnings (net income) shows that the company and its value is growing. And if the company value is growing, that means the stock prices ought to grow too. Increased sales does not always lead to increased growth rates. Company expansion does not always mean growth in income as well. Here is where the profit margins come into play. If a company gets more sales or expands to new markets, then it has to have a very good profit margin to support growth in income. Note that every move of the company entails costs, so the better they get to manage the profit margin, the better the income growth rate will be. Lastly, it will also be good to compare growth rates of competing companies within the same industry, to see not just who’s growing obese, but who’s growing healthily.


8. Cash Flows

By cash flows, we mean positive cash in-flow. This time, this is very much tied to #2 which is the cash position. Of course, what is good is there is more cash that is coming in compared to the cash that is coming out. Capital intensive companies (e.g. mining, infrastructure, real estate development) and those that invest a lot at this time will surely have challenged cash flows. But lucky you if you encounter companies with very rich cash in-flows. Lynch also computes a price to cash flow ratio wherein the stock price is divided by the annual cash in-flow of the company per share. This should mean that with the stock price you are paying, this is the amount of cash that comes in.

9. Inventory

For Lynch, if an inventory builds up, especially for retailers and manufacturers, he considers it as a warning sign. And if inventory build up is faster than sales growth (especially if there is no anticipated future sales growth like seasonal or new big customer), then that is a red flag.  Just be cautious though with how an inventory impacts the company. Inventory for a retailer / manufacturing company is definitely more important, compared to say a bank or a hotel. Also, one needs to check whether the inventory is perishable, has a high salvage value, or is practically worthless if taken outside the context of the company. For example, aluminium sheets and precious metals definitely has value even if stocked up for a while, compared to finished jeans and Christmas cards and canned tuna.

10. Asset Play

Another tricky number to look at will be the company assets and whether they have significant disposable value. Lynch says real estate, oil, precious metals will be lodged in the AFS according to their book values, and that could have been decades ago and all might have already appreciated. Not sure if this is the case here in the Philippines but it sounds like a good accounting practice to me. Further, if a company has lots of networks, coverage, and effective wide reach (cable TV, electric grids and water utilities), and are still fully functional, then that must be something that has been fully depreciated already in the company books but are still worth a great deal. Patents and copyrights, exclusive rights are also valuable assets that are not reflected accurately in the AFS.

So there’s the Top10 +1 list from Lynch, with my own two cents. One does not need to use all these, whatever works for you will be great.

My Rating: ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ☆


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