Advertisements
HEADLINES

Ask Geri: Anong stock tataas bukas? How to be you este buy po?

Again and again, we urge people who want to be serious about stocks trading to study, study, study. Come up with your own personal trading plan, come up with your own style, your own screener, your own buy and sell rules. This is not being selfish, this is about being responsible and mature. There is a proper venue to learn, to be taught (in seminars, webinars, etc). There is a time to research and read up on your own. There are better ways to spend your time rather than posting questions in groups and reading the varied reactions (either helpful or hateful).

Rate this:

“Ano pong stock magandang bilhin?”

“Ano pong stock tataas bukas?”

“Your thoughts in XYZ? Good buy?”

“San po makikita yung 30 stocks na kasama sa PSE index?”

“How to buy po?”

“How to be you po?”

askgeributtonwhite_smaller_zpsa277e917

Caveat emptor. I am no stock market guru. I am by no means a veteran. A sophomore may be, definitely neither a rookie nor a senior. My batting average in my trades is only at 40% (which for me has room to improve on, computed as (gaining trades / gaining trades + losing trades)) but as Minervini says, a 50% batting average, success rate may already be considered a stock market wizard. So there’s hope for me.

For those who claim they are newbies and ask above questions, fine. We can tolerate a few of these questions here and there. For friends, this is also often the case. No problem.  Just casual talk among mature moneyed individuals. But at the end of the day,  all of us agree that this is not the best way to move forward.

ARAL MUNA BAGO TRADE

FOMO. Fear of missing out. The index has been rising, I see hundred thousand gains on FB but I am not into the stock market. Only 1% of Pinoys have stocks. I should join the bandwagon and get rich as well very soon. As if. Only to find out this is not the case.

In social media, FB groups, etc., we always see and hear variations of the above questions. Nothing wrong with asking really, but you and I both know that this is not sustainable. This will not make people better stock market investors and traders. If anything, it breeds dependence and vulnerability to hypers and those looking for buyers when they are ready to sell.

I personally wouldn’t want to be responsible for any losses that the person might suffer based on my answers to their questions, even if they tell me that they won’t hold me accountable for the consequences. Besides, I don’t have a crystal ball, no one does.

The stock market is not a get rich quick scheme. If it was, we would all be full time traders by now. But no. It is hard to predict, and the best way to play it is to react. Be decisive, not emotional. React, do not predict. If the market proves you right or wrong for that instance, react decisively.

Juan will never know what will happen to a certain stock. Instead, it is the collective emotions, the combined fear and greed of the market that will decide what happens. By the second, by the minute, every hour, every trading day. As retail investors, all we can do is react to what the market is showing us. And as I react, I don’t have the extra time to post on FB and tell you what to do. Others are busy making money or cutting losses too while there you are awaiting for answers. Cut loss na po ba? Kanina pa. Ano ba time horizon mo? Ano average entry price mo? Kabibili mo lang or matagal mo na hawak? See? It really depends per person.

$NIKL_20171106

I myself have been participating in the market since 2007 but I am still improving my trading plan. I’m not even at a point of perfecting it, I am still at the point of improving it. And along the way, I am also struggling. My stint earlier as a Fundamental Analyst was a success to me, that’s why now I’m also trying to enlarge my capabilities by being more and more of a technical analyst. A trader, not an investor. As I’ve said, my hit rate for my trades is just at 40% levels (41.78% to be exact), so I still have a lot to improve on.

ZERO SUM GAME

Likewise, whether we like it or not, we all have ulterior motives. We’re all biased because we all have emotions in the market. I’d gladly recommend to someone a stock that has been rising if I know that I have already made a position in it a long time ago. Or I’ll be biased against a stock that has burned me over and over again (uhmm PSE: X) and I might be blinded by the fact that it is now finally on its way to recovery (not saying in reality, theoretically, of course. How about PSE: DNL?).

Again and again, we urge people who want to be serious about stocks trading to study, study, study. Come up with your own personal trading plan, come up with your own style, with your own stocks screener, your own buy and sell rules. This is not being selfish, this is about being responsible and financially mature. There is a proper venue to learn, to be taught (in seminars, webinars, etc). There is a time to research and read up on your own. There are better ways to spend your time rather than posting questions in groups and reading the varied reactions (either helpful or hateful). Learn how to be an independent trader, not a dependent one because the market eats the latter for breakfast. The market eats the money of those who are always late to react.

Some are even astounded by the fact that those who are successful in stocks trading charge huge sum of money as fees for mentoring or subscription to their techniques. Uhmmm, in case you don’t know, they spent countless hours, sweat, blood, tears, money, losses, just for them to get to where they are now. Who would want to give that away for free?  That’s their hard earned investment and skill. That’s their value to the world.

Besides, if you prefer free services, then chances are you won’t take it seriously because you don’t have a tuition fee, you don’t lose anything by joining and by not taking it seriously. You are not fully invested and engaged in it. Meanwhile, the teacher is not professionally bound to deliver and teach properly because hey, he’s doing it pro bono. So let them charge what they want, they are not forcing any Juan to join anyway. They are not selfish, they just have good business sense. Baka bitter ka lang because you cannot afford it. Lol!

bullish-market

Likewise, in case you haven’t heard it, if a service is free, you are not the customer, you are the product. Just look at Facebook or Google. We are not their customers, we and our data are their products. Anyway.

Again and again, you would read that each of us must come up with our own trading plans (what to buy, when to buy, what’s the stop loss, what’s trailing stop, etc.) if we want to be successful in trading the stock market. That’s the basic honest way to go about it. Ask for the meantime but don’t do this forever. We cannot just copy and imitate market gurus and veterans, and trust me, they won’t even want you to do so.

Case in point, Bo Sanchez’s Truly Rich Club received a massive backlash when one of its recommendations, PSE: CHP tanked from P11 to P4/sh because of poor income forecasts and too much cement supply locally. Many members suffered losses. Did they know this will happen? Of course not, otherwise they would not recommend it to begin with. Mind you, the time horizon of TRC is very long term (10 to 20 years), and CHP was recommended just a within the past 2 years or less. Joining TRC means Juan should be in it for the long haul and should not be bothered by temporary down turns. TRC is mainly fundamental analysis and stocks investing, not stocks trading. That’s what happens when Juan invests blindly, and finds someone else to blame except himself. That’s what happens when what you want (active stocks trading) is not aligned with what the service is for (cost-averaging for the long-term). And what of TRC’s many profitable recommendations? Did any Juan bother to thank them for that? I’m not paid to protect TRC, heck I don’t even follow some of their recos. But I am well aware that I am solely responsible in growing my stocks portfolio.

Other veterans also make mistakes in their analyses, after all they are human and they are just a small fish in the ocean of the stock market. They cannot move markets with their recos. Only the market moves itself. Again, our collective buying and selling driven by our collective and varying emotions, intentions.

I myself have joined many groups, paid and free, and there is no one perfect group. The best group for me is one where you will learn how to do it on your own sooner rather than later. No one can control where and when the money the goes, Juan can only ride it while it’s there.

Hey your money, your rules. Don’t invest blindly.

Veterans will always be hands-off on what happens to your money even if they give you expert advice. Even if you pay for that advice. Some will willingly teach you (for a fee or none) but you will always be the one to execute. You will be the one to hit that buy or sell button. And they won’t be around to teach you forever. They are trying to make the most money out of the stock market to retire early, not to teach thousands of newbies daily.  That’s the truth. They cannot tell you what to buy and when to buy, and worst of all, when selling time comes, they cannot tell you that either because they are busy protecting their own gains and cutting losses.

Life is not a zero-sum game, we can find ways where all parties win, but the stock market, like it or not, is a zero-sum game because it is trading, buy and sell. Juan’s gain is another Juan’s loss, and vice versa. So at the end of the day, you alone are responsible for your own trades, in protecting your money, and in making it grow. No matter what your teachers and what Facebook tells you. Risk management first, before profits.

YOUR MOVE

I encourage every Juan in the stock market to devote time daily to study and develop their own trading plan. Remember the 10,000 hours rule? There are many charting tools out there. But at the end of the day, it’s your money, your rules (and hopefully, your own trading plan). Each of us have different personalities, investment OHA, trading emotions and baggage. We have different amounts of time that we choose to spend on the market, during trading hours and when markets are closed. Full time, with day-jobs, weekly only, etc.

$GERI_20171106

The trick is not to master all the charting tools (there’s a lot so you can’t!), but to master a few, the simpler the few ones you choose to master, the better. The more you understand what the few indicators say, the better. Let me leave you with a list of stock trading indicators that are fairly easy to use and understand. I’m limiting my masteral studies to these and once I master one or two that I find effective in my trades, I will stick to them and build my buying and selling rules from there. That’s how the veterans do it. Hopefully, you read more about them through the internet and YouTube. If I find the time, I will also share my easy notes on how to use these charting tools:

  1. Moving Averages (MA)
  2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
  3. Stochastics
  4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)
  5. Pivot Points
  6. Fibonacci Retracements
  7. Ichimoku Clouds
  8. Harmonics (bit advanced but very cool)

Again, you don’t have to use all of these and then some more. Choose the ones you think you understand the best, then do some backtesting in charts to see if they really work for you. Let us all learn from what Bruce Lee has to say:

Bruce Lee 10000 Times

Photo from thethingswesay.com

ASK GERI

To answer the questions:

“Ano pong stock magandang bilhin?”

Stocks that are fundamentally sound and trading below fair value (FV). Stocks that match your investment OHA. If you don’t know where to get FV, then you need to study further.

“Ano pong stock tataas bukas?”

We cannot tell until we see tomorrow then we react. Assess whether it remains a good buy or too late to enter. Decide, are you to be a break-out trader, a bottom fisher or a trend follower. A good gauge is the top gainers and most active from the previous trading day but this is no guarantee. Some also look at unusual increase in traded volume compared to historical average. Profit taking might also occur if the rise has been stretched. Find good volume in rising stocks. Caveat.

“Your thoughts in XYZ? Good buy?”

There’s no XYZ in PSE. If there is such a stock, I’ll say it depends on your investment OHA. I don’t cover the hundreds of stocks in PSE. Come up with a screener, choose your top 5 to 8 then analyze the charts.

“San po makikita yung 30 stocks na kasama sa PSE index?”

PSE edge. Google it my friend. If you have an online stocks broker account, they should have it. Research first before you ask. This is a very basic question. If you rely on asking rather than on research, you make yourself vulnerable to hype and misinformaton and chances are, you’ll lose money. The stock market does not care whether you are a newbie learning the ropes or a veteran who’s had many years in battle. If you’re wrong, your’re wrong, you lose money. Period.

“How to buy po?”

Click this link for an old article. These are just two of the many online brokers out there. Depends on which broker account you have.

“How to be you po?”

Don’t try to be. Be your best self. We have different gifts, and we become our best selves by using our gifts wisely and by sharing it with the world. As I always say in my e-book, a WISER PINOY = RICHER PINOY. Be wiser, be the best version of you and find yourself becoming richer in no time.

Join our free newsletter to receive articles on investments straight to your mailbox. Just enter your email below:

Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join our 11,000 and growing community in Facebook, Instagram and Twitter.

Stocks investing and trading is just one of the many investments you should have in order to have a richer life. In my #10Steps ebook, I discussed a dozen more investment options and the 10 steps (summarized as WISER PINOY) to have a richer life. Don’t forget to grab your copy.

For financial and spiritual mentoring plus long term stocks investing, consider Truly Rich Club. If you are the more aggressive type who wants to be an active trader, subscribe to PinoyInvestor for free and get copies of researches from many stocks brokers. But then again, you are solely responsible on where you put your money. These are mere tools and guidance.

Looking for franchised businesses but only have little capital? PhilCrowd can be the solution for your dream franchised business.

May we all have richer lives!

 

 

Advertisements
About Geri (359 Articles)
Founder and main author. Husband, used-to-be-breadwinner, God-made multi-millionaire, employee, financial planner and adviser, investor, stocks trader, entrepreneur, agri-preneur, book author. Firm believer that all Pinoys deserve a richer life. Not a guru, but a forever student of the investments world, a work-in-progress.

Comment here.

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: